To Review or Not to Review? Limited Strategic Thinking at the Movie Box Office

Film distributors occasionally withhold movies from critics before their release. Cold openings provide a natural field setting to test models of limited strategic thinking. In a set of 856 widely released movies, cold opening produces a significant 15% increase in domestic box office revenue (though not in foreign markets and DVD sales), consistent with the hypothesis that some moviegoers do not infer low quality from cold opening. Structural parameter estimates indicate 1–2 steps of strategic thinking by moviegoers (comparable to experimental estimates). However, movie studios appear to think moviegoers are sophisticated since only 7% of movies are opened cold

Learning and Visceral Temptation in Dynamic Savings Experiments

In models of optimal savings with income uncertainty and habit formation, people should save early to create a buffer stock, to cushion bad income draws and limit the negative internality from habit formation. In experiments in this setting, people save too little initially, but learn to save optimally within four repeated lifecycles, or 1-2 lifecycles with “social learning.” Using beverage rewards (cola) to create visceral temptation, thirsty subjects who consume immediately overspend compared to subjects who only drink after time delay. The relative overspending of immediate-consumption subjects is consistent with hyperbolic discounting and dual-self models. Estimates of the present-bias choices are β=0.6-0.7, which are consistent with other studies (albeit over different time horizons)

Learning and Visceral Temptation in Dynamic Saving Experiments

This paper tests two explanations for apparent undersaving in life cycle models: bounded rationality and a preference for immediacy. Each was addressed in a separate experimental study. In the first study, subjects saved too little initially—providing evidence for bounded rationality—but learned to save optimally within four repeated life cycles. In the second study, thirsty subjects who consume beverage sips immediately, rather than with a delay, show greater relative overspending, consistent with quasi-hyperbolic discounting models. The parameter estimates of overspending obtained from the second study, but not the first, are in range of several empirical studies of saving (with an estimated β = 0.6–0.7)

Devaluation, Short-Run Supply Response, and the J-Curve

This paper will attempt to empirically illustrate the contribution of short-run supply adjustment to the U.S. J-curve. I plan to study, on the major industry division level (2 digit SIC), 15 manufacturing sectors of the united states. Their supply movements will be calculated in terms of total short-run adjustment. These statistics will then be compared to the trade balance (J-curve) for the U.S. to see if the supply movements of U.S. manufacturers can explain the continued drop in U.S. international trade. If the theory is supported few industries will adjust quickly in the short-run, reflecting the slow adjustment of aggregate trade variables. Studies relating to the subject of supply response generally deal with movements in aggregate variables. To the best of my knowledge supply response relating\u27 to the J-curve has never been measured on such a disaggregated level. The final results of this paper indicate that following devaluation of the dollar the short-run supply response of U.S. industries is negligible. This finding lends itself to previous studies which have indicated that demand is highly inelastic over the same period. The poor performance of U.S. international trade and the length of the U.S. J-curve are in agreement with this finding. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: section II contains a selective review of the relevant literature. Section III develops the theory which is to be tested. Section IV describes the model which is used and how it is measured. Section V describes the data used in this study. Section VI presents the results. Section VII analyzes and explains the results. Section VIII describes some of the econometric difficulties encountered while measuring the model. Finally, Section IX concludes the paper with an agenda for future research

Phenotypic characterization of Table Mountain (Pinus pungens) and pitch pine (Pinus rigida) hybrids along an elevational gradient in the Blue Ridge Mountains, Virginia

Hybridization has played a long-standing role in the evolution of both plant and animal species and allows for the sharing of genetic information between lineages. Here, potential hybridization of a species endemic to the Appalachian Mountains, Table Mountain pine (Pinus pungens), and pitch pine (Pinus rigida) was investigated along an elevational gradient, through the use of phenotypic measurements: cone length, cone width, and needle length. Phenotypes were used to identify hybrids in a three-tiered elevational sampling method at two sites in Shenandoah National Park with the use of linear discriminant analysis. It was found that hybridization between Table Mountain and pitch pine is relatively rare and varied by site and elevation. It was hypothesized that this lack of hybridization is due to environmental factors, which was further tested through use of climate data. The site where hybridization was highest was cooler and wetter. These factors may impact the pollen release of the focal species, causing overlap in pollen release timing and female cone receptivity, leading to increased instances of hybridization